Philadelphia leads Arizona by one game for the final National League wild card, with two to play. They split the season series 3–3; the market prices Arizona as holding the next tiebreaker, and so does this page.
How to read the map. Across is PHI's chance of winning its game, up is AZ's. Every point is one price for the race, exactly: navy ground favours PHI, rust ground favours AZ, and the thick white line is 50–50. The ball is where the two game markets are right now; the faint line behind it is the evening so far.
The arrows are the outcomes of each plate appearance in progress: PHI's game moves the ball sideways, AZ's moves it up and down. Thicker arrows are more common outcomes. The dashed line is every point the Kalshi race market's own price agrees with, so the distance from the ball to that line is the gap between the model and the market.
Where the numbers come from. The race price is exact arithmetic over the remaining games and the tiebreaker; it has no fitted parameters. Arrow sizes come from a 2024–25 win-expectancy table applied to the game markets' prices, with league-average outcome rates, not this batter against this pitcher. MLB's game state arrives a few seconds after the pitch, so the ball can move before its arrows do. Nothing here is advice to trade.